Bielmeiers Blog

DZ BANK

Selecting business news – analysing it – commenting on it. That’s the job of Stefan Bielmeier, Chief Economist and Head of DZ BANK’s Research and Economics Division, and of his team of analysts. In his blog, Bielmeier reports on economic developments in the world's most important economic regions, looks at trends in the international financial markets and states his position on current political events.

Bielmeier’s Blog picks out the essence of the daily data deluge for you – make use of his expert knowledge.
Trade dispute slows China’s economic growth

The Chinese economy lost further momentum over the summer months. Economic growth in the third quarter was again lower than in the previous quarter, falling to a new 27-year low of 6.0 percent (y/y). Market estimates were thus slightly missed, but our own somewhat more sceptical expectations came true. The downward trend that began at the beginning of last year with the outbreak of US-Chinese trade disputes has continued. The largest growth losses occurred in industry, which recorded its lowest increase since 1990 in the past quarter at 5.0 percent. This figure would have been even weaker if industrial production had not picked up visibly in September, the month that ended the quarter. We remain cautious, however, as to whether this will signal a reversal of the industrial downturn. On the contrary, as in the course of the year to date, this could conceal government measures that have been brought…

Even a „soft“ Brexit does not let the economy take off

  The global economy is in difficult waters. Growth has not been as weak as it has been since the financial crisis of 2008/2009. In its current analysis, the International Monetary Fund estimates it at only 3.0 percent for the current year, more than half a percentage point less than last year. There is certainly a risk that things will get even worse. Namely, if one of the risks that have already been weighing on the global economic climate for some time, and above all on companies‘ willingness to invest, should worsen further. Fortunately, the two most important issues have not looked like this in recent days. The United States and China seem to be moving more in the direction of (partial) compromises in the trade conflict. It is becoming increasingly clear that the mutual protectionist measures are damaging not only China, the world champion exporter, but also American industry….

Rare earths: Beijing’s pledge of fist

Rare earths: Beijing’s pledge of fist China exported so few rare earths in September as it has not done for more than two years. Australia, on the other hand, intends to significantly expand its exports of rare earths in the near future, with sales in the United States in particular set to increase. The USA is currently working on a cooperation agreement with Australia to promote the production of rare earths. This is intended to make the worldwide, but above all the US demand for the important metals more independent of the Chinese supply supremacy. For there is great concern that Beijing could impose an embargo on the export of raw materials against the USA, thus using its dominant position as a „weapon“ in the trade dispute – even if the two sides have recently come a little closer to settling the conflict. Rare earths are indispensable for today’s technologies,…

Commercial real estate market still unaffected by downturn

Without climate change, the real estate market would presumably be the top topic in Germany. Almost every week, high purchase prices and barely affordable rents are reported. And the financial supervisory authorities are concerned about high valuations of residential and commercial real estate. With a view to negative bond yields, however, interest in the real estate market will not stop soon. The general conditions for the commercial real estate markets in the seven top German locations – Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart – have deteriorated. International crises are weighing on exports. The economy may just miss a recession. The booming e-commerce sector is increasingly affecting the retail sector. However, the top locations are suffering less from a declining pedestrian frequency, which is adding to the shopping miles in many cities. Here, the retail sector can hold its own thanks to the growing buyer potential, rising population numbers…

Much ado about nothing? Trump announces partial agreement in trade dispute with China

China and the United States seem to be heading for a partial solution to the trade dispute. The talks between the two countries, which resumed last week, have at least brought a first success. However, in the past two years, in which the conflict gradually escalated, an agreement had often come within reach. But it failed time and again because of unacceptable or hardly realizable demands on both sides and ultimately also because of the volatility of Donald Trump. This cannot be ruled out this time either. According to the US President, the core of the partial agreement is the willingness of the Chinese to purchase American agricultural products worth between USD 40 billion and USD 50 billion per year. The solution will also include higher imports of Boeing aircraft with a volume of up to 20 billion US dollars. In addition, there is said to have been an initial…

Erdogan’s campaign in Syria has consequences

Surprisingly, the Turkish army’s offensive in northern Syria, which began last week, is not coming. For months, President Erdogan has announced his intention to establish a buffer zone on Syrian territory at the Turkish border. So far the terrain has been controlled by Kurdish militias, the Democratic Forces of Syria (SDF). In Turkey’s eyes, this group is a terrorist organisation. The invasion of Turkish troops was only made possible by the withdrawal of the most important ally of the SDF. US President Trump recently surprisingly announced the withdrawal of the remaining military members of his country from northern Syria. Not only the Kurds considered this announcement a stab in the back, even in the USA there was much criticism of Trump’s actions. For President Erdogan, domestic political motives might play a role in the campaign. After the poor performance of his AKP in the local elections in spring as well…