As a whole, the emerging markets are still doing well in terms of growth, even though the pace of growth in China for example has slowed down slightly in Q3. In most „growth markets“, the economic upturn continued up to the middle of this year and picked up momentum thereafter. Russia, Brazil and South Africa are the three BRICS countries which were able to pull out of their respective recession last spring. In fact, the Eastern European transition economies are booming at the moment.
The future growth picture will be shaped less by economic and more by political risk factors. This is true, for example, of Brazil, where it is unclear whether and in what form President Temer’s reform policies will persist after the next elections in autumn 2018. Turkey has recently reported extremely high growth rates. However, these are not durable, having arisen in a setting shaped by political uncertainty, autocratic rulership, and debt-financed government spending. For detailed information on the economic trends in the emerging markets, please also consult our quarterly publication “Economic Perspectives – Fast Growing Economies”, the last issue of which appeared on 8 December 2017.