Brexit has been postponed again. This time until Halloween. However, the conditions are not favourable for Great Britain and one may continue to hope that the existing withdrawal treaty may still be accepted after all. Nor can one now any longer rule out political consequences for Theresa May.
However, a no-deal Brexit is by no means off the table. A disorderly exit could even occur automatically. It could come as early as 1 June – at least according to the provisions of the resolution of the summit meeting – namely if Great Britain has failed to ratify the withdrawal agreement from the end of 2018 by 22 May or has not carried out the elections to the European Parliament at the end of May as required. To make the entire Brexit process a little more complicated, the new magic formula is “flextension,“ in other words Great Britain can always exit the Union on the first day of the subsequent month provided both sides have ratified the withdrawal treaty.
In Great Britain little progress has been made with the renewed Brexit postponement. At the moment there is little to indicate a cross-party compromise between the Conservatives and the opposition Labour Party, so a majority for the deal is not in sight. Prime minister May is increasingly facing rebellion in her own party and possible removal from office as prime minister, which I believe would be necessary for a political reset and break-through. New elections and/or a second referendum take a lot of time, time that is lacking, and they would not change much.
This does leave something positive. There is now some time to create clarity and the ball is in the British political court, so responsibilities are at least clearly assigned.