Biggest danger for new Lira crisis off the table again

 

The relationship between Turkey and Russia may not always be easy. However, unlike other important personalities in the world, the Russian head of state succeeds in exerting influence on the Turkish president. This was demonstrated by the recent meeting of the two heads of state. Not only has the ceasefire for northern Syria been extended by around six days, but a plan has been drawn up to sort out the situation there in the future. If this plan is successful, Erdogan can consider his goal of establishing a buffer zone on the Turkish-Syrian border to have been achieved. The fact that part of this territory is under the control of Russian and Syrian soldiers should make it difficult for him, as should the promise not to question Syria’s territory. The losers of the agreement are the „Democratic Forces of Syria“, mainly Kurdish militias that had controlled the area for some time. They should have little choice but to withdraw, as they should have little interest in dealing with both the Turkish and Russian military.

The changed starting position may understandably meet with incomprehension from many observers. However, it is an advantage for the Turkish national currency. If the Kurdish fighters „voluntarily“ withdraw from the area, the danger of a direct clash with the Turkish military is low. The basis as well as the necessity of far-reaching US sanctions against Turkey and its economy were thus dropped. In any case, US President Trump did not give the impression recently that he was more interested in decisive measures against Ankara. Consequently, the recently significantly increased risk of a new Lira crisis has been eliminated for the time being.

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