The much-anticipated recession in Germany has therefore failed to materialise. Economic output in the third quarter did not fall as in the previous quarter, but rose slightly again. This is primarily due to the spending propensity of consumers, both private and public. According to the Federal Statistical Office, foreign trade also slowed the economy less than in the spring, despite the ongoing trade dispute.
Overall, it has been shown that the robust domestic economy, supported by a good employment situation and low interest rates, was once again able to absorb the braking effects from the industrial sector. But growth is weak. Investments in particular are suffering from the great uncertainty. Industrial companies are having to cut back their production due to declining incoming orders. Some are even already thinking about staff reductions.
The decisive factor for the coming quarters will be whether the international situation actually eases again somewhat. There are initial signs of this. Some sentiment indicators are already showing a glimmer of hope. For the German economy, a positive outlook for world trade remains a central driving force. Domestic consumer demand alone cannot sustain the economy in the long term.