Weak economy, determined central banks

The swan song to the German economy came too early. The scenarios of doom and gloom, some of which had been spread in recent weeks, were exaggerated. The recession did not set in. Although growth in the third quarter was weak, it was positive. This also corresponds to the picture we had painted in our economic assessment. However, this increasingly put us in a minority position.

Of course, growth in Germany is not satisfactory, the rate is only just above zero. The headwind from global trade caused orders in industry to break away, companies cut back production and wait for the time being to invest. Although consumer demand is stable and the construction industry can still hardly save itself from orders, this is not enough for a stable growth of the economy as a whole. To achieve this, international business will have to improve again, and a real turnaround is not yet in sight.

From the point of view of the central banks, nothing stands in the way of a further easing of international monetary policy. In recent months, a growing number of central banks have already felt compelled to initiate new expansionary measures or at least to hold out the prospect of doing so. This will hardly change in 2020 either. A clear departure from the global ultra-expansive monetary policy of recent years is therefore unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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