Euro area inflation rate leaves three-year low


In November, the inflation rate rose again somewhat. According to the flash estimate, consumer price inflation in the euro zone was 1.0% last month, after 0.7% in the previous month. This rise in inflation is due to stronger dynamics in the prices of unprocessed food and services. The price development of other goods remained moderate. By contrast, energy prices fell again by a similar amount as in the previous month. This is mainly due to the lower crude oil price compared to the previous year, which was reflected in the petrol stations.

The rate of inflation has recently accelerated somewhat in all major member states. In Germany and France the annual rate rose from 0.9% to 1.2%. In Spain the rate rose from 0.2% to 0.5% and in Italy from 0.2% to 0.4%.

Overall, however, inflation in the euro zone remains subdued despite the recent rise. In the case of stronger price dynamics in food and services, these are likely to have been one-off effects that should recede in the coming months. By contrast, the negative swings in energy prices will probably gradually come to an end. The bottom line is that consumer prices in the currency area should continue to rise only moderately in the coming months. We expect inflation rates to rise by slightly more than 1%.

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