The corona flu is increasingly spreading in China. The scale of SARS has already been far exceeded, with over 20,000 people infected to date. However, despite the high infection rate, the number of cases outside China remains very small and manageable. A global pandemic is still a long way off. The financial markets have reacted to the development, and the concerns that have visibly increased in the last week have evaporated again. This is of course only true as long as the spread of the flu remains largely confined to China.
Nevertheless, the sharp rises in equity markets may have been somewhat premature. The longer the flu virus restricts economic activity in China, the greater the economic losses will be. Even now, slightly negative effects on global economic momentum should not be ruled out.
US President Trump has been celebrated for the economic successes he has achieved and the extremely good development of the financial markets. The start of the election campaign gives an idea of what lies ahead of us in the coming weeks. The impeachment procedure has now been completed, so there is actually no longer any good reason not to expect US President Trump to be re-elected. Investors in the financial markets should be pleased. Europe less so, however. The risk of trade disputes in the second term of office should not be neglected