For many years the fear of dwindling oil wells dominated the ideas about the end of the combustion engine. In the meantime, however, the revolution in motor vehicle propulsion has already been heralded. While the share of alternative technologies in new passenger car registrations in Germany was still 1.7 percent in 2015, it had already reached 8.8 percent by 2019. The driving force behind the increasing supply of „electric cars“ and hybrids and the equally increasing demand is climate and environmental protection. Currently, the focus is on bans on diesel driving, specifications for the fleet consumption of car manufacturers and the environmental bonus for the purchase of electric vehicles.
With regard to the future development of automotive drive concepts, we expect a noticeable increase in the number of electrified vehicles over the next ten years, but we also see a high proportion of vehicles with combustion engines. In 2030 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are likely to account for 30% of global production volume. The share of hybrids, including plug-in hybrids, will increase to 40% in 2030. For pure combustion engines, on the other hand, a significant decline to 30% is expected.
It is not yet clear whether, looking beyond 2030, a single drive concept will prevail or whether several technologies will exist in parallel. The advantages and disadvantages of the various drive concepts could each lead to different uses. Battery-powered vehicles could play out their advantages particularly well on short distances within the city or in commuter traffic, while fuel cell vehicles will be used on long distances or in freight traffic. (Plug-in) hybrids will also ensure that fossil fuels will continue to accompany us as a fuel for quite some time to come. For the time being, we can still expect to see „biodiversity“ on the roads.
Demands for further state aid for the automobile companies in the form of purchase incentives (scrapping bonus) are becoming louder. These potentially new programmes could be used to promote ecological change. Although the actual speed of change will be slow, even with such programmes, due to production factors, the process of rethinking in society could be accelerated considerably. This could be the basis for a sustainable change in the technology mix.