Embrace change

 

The current data on economic development sends a cold shiver down your spine. In many countries, production slumped by around 20 percent in April. To calm things down, it can be said that the economic slump bottomed out in April and the data will improve noticeably again in May.

But that doesn’t really calm him down. The medium-term consequences of the lockdown and the support measures of governments and central banks for economic structures cannot be fully assessed. The simplest assumption would be that nothing will change, as the recession was deep but short. However, this seems too simple to me. Even before Corona, the world economy had entered a phase of stagnating globalization. Together with COVID-19, this should lead to changes in preferences and behaviour in the future. It is difficult to predict which business models will be affected by the change and how. However, state aid based on structural constancy will slow down and complicate the adjustment of the economies, slow down investment, lead to inefficiencies and thus reduce growth potential, at least temporarily.

Even if the euphoria is high at present, the medium-term structural consequences of recent events should not be underestimated. Structural changes do not have to be generally negative, they can also mean a positive development.

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