Avoid extremes

 

Gold is one of the big winners of recent developments. Rising debt levels, low interest rates for an incalculable period of time and increasing political uncertainty in many parts of the world have led to a strong increase in interest in gold. At the same time, gold is supposed to make portfolios more resistant to risks that can only be assessed vaguely or not at all from the current perspective – so-called black swans.

Besides gold, industrial metals in particular have risen sharply. Of course, the rapid economic recovery in China and the fiscal measures taken in other industrial countries played an important role in this. In addition, a certain scarcity premium is slowly becoming noticeable for many industrial metals. In the medium term, the rapidly advancing digitalization should lead to a noticeably higher demand for metals that are needed in this sector. This goes so far that many countries are concerned about their dependence on foreign extraction sites. Higher domestic production is becoming increasingly attractive against this background. As a result, the associated environmental damage is naturally also coming to the fore, as are the probably higher prices for domestically mined raw materials. As is often the case, a mixture of domestic production and imports will prevail in the end.

Of course, this applies not only to the urgently needed raw materials, but actually to all important goods of daily life. In the future it will be important to find the right balance between the advantages of an international economy based on the division of labor and the security of supply. As always, the extremes are bad here too.

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