When waiting becomes torture…

 

The election campaign in the USA was long and at times dirty. This was to be feared. Its end was therefore longed for more than ever before. But the waiting did not end with election day. Because the hope for a clear result of the presidential elections was not fulfilled. The race is extremely close. In many states the counting process takes so long because, not least because of the Corona pandemic, a great many voters cast their votes by postal vote. And it is this fact above all that will now probably have a longer legal repercussion. So the waiting continues.

Meanwhile, it is relatively clear that the winner of the presidential elections, when it is finally determined, will not only have to deal with a deeply divided country, but also with divided majorities in Congress. For the House of Representatives will most likely remain in Democratic hands, while the Republicans seem to have been able to defend their majority in the Senate.

The new president will therefore not be able to „rule through“ the House. This will make it very difficult for him to push through his priorities in fiscal policy. For this he needs Congress as the budget legislator. Finding compromises between the two chambers will be anything but easy. In any case, maximum positions – for example in tax policy – have no chance of success. This need not be a disadvantage. However, even with regard to the economic stimulus package needed to alleviate the consequences of the pandemic on the labor market, it will probably only be possible to agree on the lowest common denominator at best. And this could well have negative macroeconomic effects in the longer term.

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