Ayse Rüzgar

EMU Purchasing Manager: Second wave depresses the mood among service providers – Industry proves robust

Uncertainty is increasing among European service providers due to the rising number of infections in October. The tightening of corona protection measures is causing the purchasing managers‘ index for the service sector to fall significantly. In some countries, the catering and accommodation sectors are noticeably restricted. In addition, there are in some cases night-time curfews. With Ireland and the Netherlands, two countries are already in a kind of lockdown. This leaves traces and puts pressure on the sentiment among service providers. In industry, on the other hand, the sentiment measurement figures may even increase and prevent worse for the overall picture. According to IHS Markit, the comprehensive composite index from both sectors fell from 50.4 to 49.4 points in October. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the growth prospects for the euro zone thus deteriorate. As there is no end in sight to the rising infection figures, further intensification…

World Savings Day 2020: Money investment backlog intensifies

The savings of private households in Germany have risen sharply in the last six years. Most recently, the savings ratio has once again shot up as a result of the Corona crisis. However, extremely low interest rates in combination with the traditional risk aversion of German private investors and rampant regulation of investment advice make it difficult to make a balanced investment. In addition, high real estate prices and restrictive building regulations are making it increasingly difficult to acquire real estate as an alternative to investing money. As a result, a growing investment backlog has built up and the proportion of uninvested funds in the form of demand deposits and cash is continuing to grow. The fact that, despite the corona crisis, private households did not engage in panic selling of securities in the first two quarters of the current year, and instead invested more funds in the form of…

Brexit: It ain’t over till it’s over

The October 15 deadline set by Prime Minister Johnson has passed. However, instead of breaking off the talks as announced, the Johnson government will probably continue to sit at the negotiating table with Brussels in the coming weeks. Once again, the realization of the past few years that even if the situation appears to be completely hopeless, it is still far from over. On several occasions, the parties involved have been on the verge of a hard break. And yet, so far they have managed to end Britain’s EU membership largely without upheaval, to negotiate a transitional phase and to discuss the shape of a subsequent free trade agreement – a fact that the negotiators and political representatives involved in the process can consider a success. It is not surprising that the path to this point has not always been straight or dominated by rational-economic aspects. After all, it is…

China is gradually regaining its old growth strength

After the deep corona crash at the beginning of the year, the Chinese economy continued its strong recovery over the summer months. Annual economic growth accelerated from 3.2 to 4.9 percent in the third quarter and is thus not far off its previous growth path. By the second quarter, China had already restored its pre-crisis level of economic output. For the year as a whole, there are now signs of growth of around two percent compared with 2019. This makes China one of the very few countries that will even achieve a positive growth rate this year compared to the previous year, and once again proves to be the global economic locomotive. One positive aspect is that the momentum of the recovery has continued until the very end. Both industrial production and the retail trade were able to accelerate their growth significantly in September. The economic climate has recently brightened…

Youth unemployment is becoming a problem in the euro zone

The corona virus caused severe economic setbacks in economies around the world in the first half of the year. In the euro zone, extensive measures were at least able to protect the labor market from more serious distortions. But things are by no means going equally well for all age groups. Particularly in the group of under 25-year-olds, a fairly rapid increase in the EMU unemployment rate has been recorded since the lockdown measures starting in March. One of the reasons for the rapid deterioration in youth unemployment is the fact that companies in Corona times provide significantly fewer training places due to increased uncertainty. This poses a particular challenge to all those who left school after graduating in Corona summer and find it difficult or impossible to find an apprenticeship. In addition, fixed-term employment contracts are hardly ever extended in these uncertain times. The danger here is that these…

Germany with a backlog of investment in software and databases

The international success of digitization is reflected primarily in investments in software and databases, but also in investments in research and development (R&D). Since the 1990s, investment in these two segments has also grown at an above-average rate in Germany, proving to be relatively crisis-resistant, quite in contrast to investment in equipment. In the second quarter of 2020, i.e. in the midst of the corona crisis, they even managed to grow overall compared with the previous quarter, as the only component of German gross domestic product apart from government consumption. In an international comparison, investments in R&D in Germany are of above-average importance for the gross domestic product. In many other countries, however, investments in software and databases play a far greater role than in Germany. Compared with the United States, but also with the United Kingdom, for example, Germany still has a considerable amount of catching up to do…

1 2 129