Economy

US economy: robust momentum – no less

The US economy started the current quarter with strong momentum, as was evidenced by the data to hand on retail sales and international trade, as well as construction. The rise in industrial production is also particularly positive. After a weak start to the year, the world’s largest economy therefore appears to have returned to its growth path again. Our economic growth forecast for this year is unchanged at around two percent. The situation in the individual economic sectors shows that the US central bank (Fed) definitely has scope at present to raise interest rates. As in previous years, the absence of growth in the first quarter fuelled concerns about the robust nature of the US economy. A look at the last ten years shows that the United States has once again assumed the role of growth driver in the group of developed nations, even after the global financial and economic…

Little ice age almost over at the end of June

Still a disadvantageous risk-reward profile in the equity market for the time being / Delay investment decisions until after 23 June Since the beginning of March the DAX has moved as sluggishly and as sparingly as a bear in winter. The trading range of the German benchmark index was mainly between 9,500 and 10,300 points. The reporting season is over, there is no relevant company news. Only very few investors dare leave cover in view of an imminent Brexit, even though the severe negative factors of the recent past (falling demand from China and the emerging markets, fluctuating currency exchange rates, a collapse in the oil price) have been factored in and a trend towards recovery is visible. The good news is that from the second quarter onwards company reports will be better again. However, earnings growth is only likely to improve at a modest rate, and the above average…

The German housing market is gradually heating up

The strong surge in housing prices continued in Q1 2016. The prices for owner-occupied homes rose on the year by 4.7 percent, the growth rate in multi-family dwellings was even more pronounced, at 8.0 percent. In the big cities, price increases cooled in the interim but have since picked up again, with owner-occupied flats becoming some 9 percent more expensive.  Neither the fact that prices have already rocketed nor the tangible expansion in residential construction were able to dampen the price hike. Four factors have driven this: Firstly, the basic economic conditions for the housing market are better than at most points in the past. Secondly, the interest rate slide results in lower mortgage payments, despite the increase in house prices.  Thirdly, rental returns that can be achieved in the housing market remain a much-sought alternative to the bond market. And fourthly, housing supply is still tight, as, despite the…

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